Toespraak van generaal T.A. Middendorp, bij dhet Planetary Security Initiative

Toespraak | 05-12-2016

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Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen,

Some people may have seen ‘climate change’ for a long time as a hobby for nature lovers, birdwatchers, or – as we used to say in the military – ‘tree huggers’.

Obviously, the fact that I’m standing here in this uniform, at this conference, shows how times have changed.

As the Dutch Chief of Defence, I can truly say that I’m worried about the effects of climate change.

Because I consider climate change a security game changer…

A root of conflict and thereby …

An immediate threat.

To our safety, and the safety of millions of people around the world.

That is also why I accepted the invitation to speak on the panel on climate security and energy security…

…at the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada, two weeks ago.

The hot topic, in every panel session, was the president-elect, Mr Trump.

The moderator of our panel asked the other panellists and me, for instance, how we felt about his previous statements on climate change…

…and his plans to withdraw from the Paris Agreement.

Of course, being a military, it's not up to me to comment on the future US President.

But what I could say as the Chief of Defence, is that I believe climate change can be a root cause of conflict, can create breeding grounds for extremism, and can trigger migration flows…

And therefore I believe there is no security… without climate security.

(…)

Ladies and gentlemen,

I don’t have to tell you that the risks of climate change are real, and the impacts are playing out right now.

That is why we are all gathered here today.

We all know that this year is set to be the warmest year since records began in the 19th century.

Just as we now know that the North Pole is 20 degrees Celsius warmer than what is normal for this time of the year.

That the arctic ice coverage is at an all-time low.

We also know that these changes are having direct consequences.

Such as heavy storms and coastal floods.

Which means that people, economies and even entire countries could be threatened.

(…)

Here in the Netherlands, we have first-hand experience of coastal flooding.

In January 1953, seven years before I was born, north-westerly winds of hurricane force whipped up an exceptionally high spring tide along our coast.

All along the dykes, people stood and watched the rising water climb relentlessly.

Wherever a weak spot in the dyke was detected, sandbags were brought in by the truckload…

… and packed in dense formation to prevent flooding.

But the efforts were in vain.

The dykes eventually failed.

(…)

Survivors spoke of ten-foot-high waves.

That night 1,836 people died…

And an area as large as the entire province of Zeeland was flooded.

Farmland.

Villages.

Towns.

Cities…

It was a scene of utter devastation.

(…)

Back then, in 1953, the Dutch army was quickly dispatched to save what was left of the dykes.

Many thousands of sandbags were placed in an effort to prevent further breaches [fon: brietjes].

Soldiers also helped transport the elderly and mothers with young children to safety.

And they did everything they could to recover the 25,000 swollen cadavers of dead cattle, before disease could spread throughout the region.

Fortunately, help came from England, Belgium, France, the US and other countries.

Their aircraft dropped food on our towns cut off by the water.

And rubber dinghies were dropped near farmhouses…

… where survivors were thought to be clinging to crumbling buildings.

But still…

…in spite of the immense efforts, it took nine months before our dykes were repaired, and the work of pumping out the water and cleaning up the mess could begin.

Many of the farming families, 72,000 people in all, were unable to return home for well over a year.

And even when they were able to return, the land was white with salt residue…

The soil was unable to produce anything worthwhile for several years.

 (…)

Ladies and gentlemen,

That night in January 1953, all hell broke loose.

And the consequence was social and economic chaos in this country.

It is with good reason that the Dutch take nothing for granted any more when it comes to our water management system.

I am very grateful that my father's generation did not restrict themselves to tempting cheaper short-term solutions.

Instead they chose to invest in an ambitious future-proof program, called the Delta Works.

Despite all the economic problems in the post-war period, they choose to invest in the protection of the next Dutch generations. A wise decision.

Up to today these are measures of national security.

But still.

We know no risk is ever zero …

And besides…

…we cannot hide behind our dikes and create an island of stability when the world is in turmoil.

And climate change is a threat to the entire world.

Climate change leads to droughts and flooding that lead to shortages of drinking water and food…

… affecting millions of people and causing instability.

(…)

Look at the Middle East.

Drought, rocketing bread prices, food and water shortages have taken their toll in the region.

New studies even suggest that ‘food insecurity’ was a major factor in the uprisings, which became known as the Arab spring.

Hundreds of thousands people took to the streets of Cairo and Tunis in 2010…

… because the price of bread was too high.

And this spike in food prices was due to a combination of factors.

Particularly crop failures in different parts of the world…

… droughts and wildfires in Russia which resulted in a ban on wheat exports…

…while flooding had destroyed much of Australia’s wheat harvest.

(…)

And what about the horrific situation in Syria today?

Prior to the civil war, this country experienced its worst years of drought on record, as a result of climate change.  

The result:

Enormous crop failures.

And at least two million people living in extreme poverty.

Farmers forced to relocate to cities.

And young people more willing to join extremist groups.

And it is precisely in the urban peripheries that the first protests began, which evolved into the current civil war.

A catastrophic civil war, which, as we all know…

…has far-reaching regional and international consequences…

…including the worst refugee crisis since the Second World War.

 (…)

Ladies and gentlemen,

Climate change…. is a creeping disaster.

Already we are seeing the migration of large numbers of people around the world, because of food scarcity, water insecurity and extreme weather…

What if we leave it unmanaged?

Then climate change will undermine our security, and spread more chaos outside our borders.

But there is more to it. Consider our energy security.

Because of climate change, there is an increased risk of shutdowns at our coal, natural gas and nuclear power plants.

Perhaps you remember the exceptional heat wave in the summer of 2015…?

Back then, the Polish government was forced to restrict power demand in key industries.

Because rivers that were drying up simply failed to cool the fleet of Polish coal power plants…

… that are responsible for 70 percent of water withdrawals in the country.

Now it is not just Polish coal power plants that are vulnerable to climate change.

Worldwide electricity production is also vulnerable.

Because changes in the climate mean decreased water availability…

…which affects cooling of inland thermo-electric power plants.

This means that all countries with a high share of hydropower and coal, gas and nuclear power risk being affected when temperatures rise.

There is also a higher risk to energy infrastructure located along the coasts…

… due to sea level rise, the increasing intensity of storms, and higher storm surge and flooding.

(…)

Ladies and gentlemen,

It is already happening. The signs cannot be ignored.

Climate change is already impacting security in a number of places around the globe.

Including strategically significant places like Syria…

Just as we know that climate change can put our energy security at risk.

(…)

Of course… if anything happens, the army can always be sent out onto the streets as a last resort, or in response to a natural disaster.

If necessary, my men and women are ready to provide humanitarian aid, protect vital infrastructure, stabilise countries and regions, fight terrorists, and protect our dykes.

That is what we have been doing for years. That’s what we are trained for.

But is that the preferable option?

In fact one could say that a response is always too late, since you are responding to a problem that already occurred.

And we all know that preventing is better than healing.

I’m sure you agree with me that prevention of these events should be our top priority.

Especially when you consider the enormous implications of climate change for security.

(…)

So if you ask me, technology can be a very large part of the solution.

In our compounds we are testing purification equipment that allow us to re-use 80% of our waste water.

And I am sure you all know many other promising technological developments.

(…)

However, more is needed.

Besides thinking green and applying sustainable energy solutions, I would say we start thinking in networks.

Form ecosystems.

Or create new coalitions, as our Minister of Foreign Affairs just said.

This is also the reason why the Dutch Minister of Defence and I are organising the Future Force Conference, which will take place in the Netherlands next February.

The theme of that conference is:

‘From partnerships to ecosystems: combining our efforts for a more secure world’.

We will invite up to a thousand cutting-edge thinkers and practitioners from all walks of life.

People such as leaders and experts from various international organisations, NGOs and social impact companies, as well as CEOs, international policy-makers, researchers, high-ranking military personnel, economists, and of course experts on climate change and energy security.

In fact, climate change and security will be a cross-cutting issue to be discussed at various breakout sessions during that conference.

One session, for example, organised by the World Resources Institute, will focus on how integrated ‘big data’ can help to anticipate and prevent geopolitical tensions caused by climate change.

Another session will deal with the challenges of managing urban security…

… and the roles various actors can play in making cities more secure by design.

And even before this conference has started, we are already seeing the building of networks.

For instance, I offered young social innovators from The Hague University of Applied Sciences the opportunity to test a new system at our military base in Mali.

It’s a small portable, self-powered water purification and desalination system.

If this system is perfected in the near future, these young people will be able to purify brackish and salt water with a device no larger than a coffee machine.

But with even better results than the conventional high energy consumption technologies.

Can you imagine?

Just consider the fact that current devices that can convert seawater to drinking water…

… are large…

… and at a cost that brings tears to your eyes.

These devices also require huge quantities of electricity.

Which means desalinated water is still far too expensive for irrigation….

Now what if these young social engineers could develop an easy-to-use device at our military base…

A device that provides water recovery of 80%...

… comes with a 'purification for dummies' manual…

… and, once completed, is able to purify 20 litres of brackish and salt water per hour with 70 watt of energy.

Less than an hour of TV-watching!

It would then become possible to reduce water shortages in, for example, refugee camps.

Or we could use the device for irrigation and domestic consumption of households in the Middle East, North Africa and beyond.

Or even for our own troops on a mission.

(…)

So as you will appreciate, my next aim is to find people or organisations willing to invest in this system.

Obviously, they will also be invited to our Future Force Conference. J

 (…) 

Ladies and gentlemen,

Last month, the Economist, quoted W. H. Auden, an English poet.

Because Mr Auden once said:

“Thousands have lived without love; not one without water”.

(…)

Given the fact that by the middle of the century more than half of this planet will be living in areas of ‘water stress’…

I like to believe that with smart solutions, clever pricing, and networks…water scarcity can be alleviated.

I hope you do too.

Let’s not just muddle forward.

Let’s act.

Together.

(…)

Now.

 

Thank you.