Presentation of the World Energy Outlook 2009

Toespraak | 12-11-2009

Speaking notes Ms M.J.A. van der Hoeven, the Netherlands Minister of Economic Affairs, at the presentation of the World Energy Outlook 2009, The Hague, 12 November 2009.

Ladies and Gentlemen,

  • It has become a fine tradition to present the World Energy Outlook in The Hague, shortly after its official presentation. I am most happy to keep up this tradition today.
  • It is a great pleasure to kick-start this event. A warm welcome to all of you. And a special word of welcome to Mr. Nobuo Tanaka, Executive Director of the IEA and Mr. Fatih Birol, its Chief Economist responsible for WEO. I look forward to hearing your presentations on the outcomes of this year's Outlook. By way of introduction, I would like to highlight the current context of energy and climate politics, as well as the WEO messages that are most important to me.

Copenhagen sets scene for IEA Ministerial

  • We are on the eve of the UN climate conference in Copenhagen. Next month, environment ministers, Prime Ministers and heads of state will discuss climate change and necessary measures to reduce CO-2-emissions.
  • The time is ripe for reaching substantial agreement:
  • We all are aware of the fact that action is required and is required now.
  • We all see the signs of the coming climate change: more droughts, hurricanes and floods than before.
  • We all want to prevent climate change from threatening human livelihood and wellbeing.

  • In October energy ministers of the IEA-countries gathered in Paris for their biennial ministerial. Often, these meetings run a somewhat predictable course, some would even call them dull. However, this time there was a lively debate, attesting to a great sense of urgency. As Chair of the meeting I emphasised that:
  • this was the last meeting of energy ministers before Copenhagen;
  • as ministers we simply could not permit ourselves to leave Paris without a real and meaningful outcome, without a contribution to the climate debate and climate policy. You need to bear in mind that 60% of CO2¬-emissions originate from energy production and use. Running away from our responsibility just was not an option.

  • • And so we expressed and confirmed our utmost determination to ensure a smooth transition to a low-carbon, more secure, sustainable and cleaner energy future as soon as possible.
  • Supported by key findings of the World Energy Outlook we agreed that the present energy path is unsustainable:
  • unsustainable because of environmental consequences like climate change and local pollution,
  • unsustainable in view of energy security, and
  • unsustainable in view of current and continuing energy poverty.
  • We explicitly underlined our commitment to international efforts to combat dangerous climate change. In other words: consensus has never been stronger.

  • I am happy that this awareness of the need for change and willingness to act upon it, was so clearly expressed in Paris. It reflects the general concern that we all have about the problems related to climate change. Problems that will exacerbate every year, every month, every day, if we fail to formulate and implement new and active policy to combat climate change.
  • Towards a sustainable energy future
  • "There is a plausible route to an alternative energy future", according to the WEO. Mr. Tanaka and Mr. Birol will explain more extensively how they see this future.
  • I was struck and pleased at the same time that we can achieve the 450 parts per million CO2-scenario, which means that we can limit the global temperature rise to an acceptable 2 degrees Celsius.

  • Of course there is no such thing as a free lunch. We need to invest extra, an incremental investment of 10,5 trillion dollars is necessary. That's a lot of money. And it will be a tough job to determine an equitable burden sharing, a distribution of CO2-reduction and investments costs. But let's look at the broader perspective: total investments amount to 0,5% of global GDP. And what is more, we will earn back about three-quarters of the investments by fuel cost savings in industry, buildings and transport. In other words, by lower energy bills. So these investments really are "green" investments!
  • I certainly do not want to play down the enormous challenge we have to meet. However, the message I want to convey is: it can be done! So let us show the determination and courage to start without delay. Because that's another lesson from the Outlook: every year of delay adds an extra 500 billion dollars to the investment we need to do between now and 2030.

Role of natural gas

  • Let me address another issue, also prominent in this year's Outlook: the role of gas. Although the growth of coal is expected to stay high, the role of gas will remain important for a number of decades to come. In the western world as well as in Asia. The supply of gas is more than adequate today. The present economic slowdown and the exploitation of unconventional reserves in the US are responsible for that.
  • However, this situation will change. The time of easy oil has come to an end; the same goes for gas in the near future. There may be more than enough gas, but we will have to explore and exploit more complex reserves, and work in places that suffer from a harsh climate. Technological development plays a crucial role. It requires cutting-edge technology and intense international cooperation to develop and mobilise sufficient technological and financial means.
  • For me, for the Netherlands, for Europe, natural gas has been important in the past decades. In the next decades it will remain so. Natural gas is the cleanest fossil fuel we have. It therefore has to play a major role in the transition to a sustainable, low-carbon energy future. Besides we need the flexibility of gas to accommodate wind energy as a back-up.
  • Last but not least: we will become a net-importer of gas in about 10-15 years. So we need to investment in infrastructure, in LNG-imports, in storage and in diversification with a view to energy security. This is the core of our gas policy: to further develop our position as a gas hub and to keep on playing a vital role in the Northwest European gas market. This is the subject of discussion after lunch.

Conclusion

  • To conclude: this edition of the World Energy Outlook again has important messages, I only highlighted two of them. Let me end by complimenting Mr. Tanaka and Mr. Birol with yet another outstanding publication. The World Energy Outlook exists since 1993, so this is the 17th edition. Over the last 10 years Mr. Fatih Birol has been responsible for what has indeed become IEA's flagship publication.
  • Mr. Birol, I would like to congratulate you on this anniversary and present you with a small token of my appreciation.
  • Thank you for your attention.